«The Last Bullet for Democracy»: The Merz Government Faces State Elections

Source: Deutschlandtrend — Tagesschau, 06.08.2026

How the federal government will function after the cabinet reshuffle: 57 % equally bad, 12 % better, 12 % equally good, 11 % worse. (Deutschlandtrend, August 2026)

Satisfaction with the federal government: 49 % not at all satisfied, 36 % somewhat dissatisfied, 12 % satisfied, 1 % very satisfied. (Deutschlandtrend, August 2026)

Despite an extreme summer, with record temperatures of 41.8 °C in June, severe droughts, and devastating wildfires, Chancellor Merz extended his summer vacation. The result: a deafening silence at a moment when citizens expected leadership and clear words.

Even before the summer, he had restructured his government, a cabinet reshuffle that sparked astonishment or rejection in many quarters. In particular, the dismissal of the Federal Minister of Transport was perceived as an act of political dilettantism. The changes at the helm of the Ministry of Economics —long anticipated by large sectors of the population, especially after this extreme summer— did not materialize. And this, despite the fact that the policies pursued by the minister Reiche, driven by fossil fuel lobby interests, are evident in her tenure. A policy that fuels extreme weather phenomena, causes severe damage to the German economy through heatwaves and low water levels, and encourages immigration from economically weaker regions even more exposed to such phenomena. In short, the very policy that fuels the AfD’s electorate’s fears.

Nor do the major reforms announced to strengthen the economy, upon closer inspection, amount to more than mere "tinkering." One example is the planned income tax reform: it is expected to grant families up to €600 annually by 2028, a sum experts say has already been eroded by inflation. At the same time, measures such as the mandatory submission of a medical certificate from the first day of illness are seen by doctors and workers as unnecessary bureaucracy and a collapse of medical practices with patients who simply need rest. It is therefore no surprise that such initiatives have not translated into the expected improvement in polling numbers.

Let us now examine the three state elections to be held in September. Those in Saxony-Anhalt have even drawn comment from former Chancellor Angela Merkel: "I think we must do something we have not had to do for many decades: truly fight for this democracy, commit ourselves, be a little brave, stand firm, and say that this is a wonderful way to live."

Saxony-Anhalt — 06/09/2026

Source: dawum.de/Sachsen-Anhalt (Open Database License — ODbL)

Saxony-Anhalt: comparison with the electoral result of 06.06.2021. AfD +20.9 points (41.7 %), CDU −14.9 (37.1 %), Linke +1.1, SPD −0.4, Grüne −0.3, BSW n.a., FDP −3.3

The elections in Saxony-Anhalt are under special scrutiny, as an AfD failure to surpass the 5 % threshold could pave the way for the first-ever state government led by the AfD. At the same time, this sparsely populated eastern German state has until now been a stronghold of the CDU.

The AfD’s state chapter, classified as right-wing extremist since November 2023, is led by Ulrich Siegmund, a 35-year-old politician known primarily for his ties to members of the Heimatreue Deutsche Jugend (HDJ, banned in 2009) and the Identitarian Movement (IB), as well as to ideologue Martin Sellner. He gained particular notoriety through the Potsdam secret meeting —in which Sellner, Siegmund, and others devised plans for "remigration"— which sparked mass demonstrations with over 200,000 people against right-wing extremism.

→ If the AfD were to secure an absolute majority in this election, or even secure a minister-president and a state government through CDU defectors, the continuity of Merz’s chancellorship would, in my view, become untenable.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — 20/09/2026

Source: dawum.de/Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Open Database License — ODbL)

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: comparison with the electoral result of 26.09.2021. AfD +19.3 points (36 %), SPD −10.6 (39.6 %), Linke +1.1, CDU −3.3, Grüne −1.3, BSW n.a., FDP −2.8

If the SPD were unable to form a stable government —whether with the Greens and Die Linke, or in the less likely variant with the CDU and the Greens— the position of the party leadership led by Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas could be seriously compromised.

Berlin — 20/09/2026

Source: dawum.de/Berlin (Open Database License — ODbL)

Berlin: comparison with the electoral result of 12.02.2023. Linke +8.5 (20.7 %), CDU −9.3 (28.2 %), AfD +8.5 (17.6 %), Grüne −2.2 (18.4 %), SPD −5.3 (18.4 %), BSW n.a., FDP −1.6

This is the only one of the three elections in which the AfD is unlikely to emerge as the most voted party. Instead, a power shift is on the horizon: the current state government led by the CDU could be replaced by a red-green-red coalition. Berlin would thus become the second federal state in which Die Linke would contribute to the head of government.

Conclusion

Even in the best-case scenario for the current federal government —in which the CDU minister-presidents in Saxony-Anhalt and the SPD minister-president in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania retain their posts— turbulent times lie ahead. A strong electoral performance by the Greens and Die Linke, particularly if they gain greater influence through the Bundesrat, will massively increase pressure on the Union as their political counterpart. However, the decisive factor will be whether the influence of the AfD can be successfully contained. Only if the political agenda can be realigned toward more progressive, environmentally favorable, and truly sustainable economic concepts will it be demonstrated whether democracy has preserved its capacity for action.